Donald Trump is certain that he knows more than any general about how to fight a war and more than any scientist about climate science. By like token, some of my friends are certain beyond rational argument that the Supreme Court will just bow down to Trump. The professional constitutional lawyers are not so certain, see my post on The Constitutional Crisis, but what do they know?
I have had some challenging conversations in the last few days.
Well, que sera sera. The Supreme Court is going to do whatever the Supreme Court is going to do. Can I predict with certainty what they will be? No, I can’t. And neither, by the way, can the dean at UC Berkeley make a certain prediction.
Certainly, the Supreme Court majority has made some awful decisions, and that’s a strong point in favor of the catastrophists imbued with certain certitude about the impending apocalypse.
On the other hand, if the Supreme Court tells Trump he need not worry about obeying the Constitution, they are telling him it’s OK to ignore the Bill of Rights, imprison anyone he wants to lock up, and declare himself President for Life and Lord of Lords.
Even if you are a very bad person, you might rationally hesitate to give someone that much power. Because—guess what?—you might be next on the list.
There are some other considerations, too. For one, the Federalist Society and its cohorts have been on a 40-year quest to take over the courts and impose their regressive views on society, all in the name of “rule of law.” During the first Trump term, their efforts were crowned with success when they got three additional seats on the Supreme Court. But if, henceforth, a judge’s order isn’t worth the paper it’s written on, then the whole Federalist Society effort—to use its version of “law” to force a right-wing agenda down our throats—goes glug glug down the drain.
And then there’s this. If law no longer matters, then a whole lot of the 1,322,649 lawyers in the United States no longer have a useful skill, and they are going to have to do something else for a living.
And, finally, there is this minor consideration. A whole lot of the crazy stuff that Trump and Elon are doing is not only unconstitutional or otherwise illegal but also economically hurtful—sometimes in disastrous ways—for Trump’s own supporters.
No, ladies and germs, there are a lot of reasons why the Supreme Court may not muster five votes to destroy the constitutional republic.
When the situation ripens to a direct conflict between Court and President, there will be conflicting voices other than Vance’s whispering into Trump’s shell-like ears. Vice President Vance will urge him to head headlong into catastrophe. Possibly, however,Orange Jesus might decide to back off. But more probably, in my view, he’ll tell John Roberts to take a long walk off a short cliff.
What then?
I saw George Conway this morning saying that Trump would order the U.S. Marshals Service not to obey the Court’s order, the Service would comply with Trump’s directive, and that would be that. Our constitutional republic would be over and done with.
I think he’s right about the Marshals Service, but predicting in predicting the imminent end of the republic, Conway might be out over his skis.
Half the country—the folks who voted for Kamala—would take to the streets.
And, remember, this would be in a context where lots of Trump voters would have started to suffer from Trump’s disastrous policies, including his unconstitutional and otherwise illegal actions. Tariffs. Trade wars. Slashing the military. Slashing funds for hospitals in rural communities. And on and on and on.
Irresistible force, meet immovable object.
It would appear that Vance and his cohorts are trying to maneuver the situation to a point where Trump has no choice but to (a) back down, bigly, or (b) declare himself Dictator for Life.
Choice (b) would be unpopular with, maybe 65% of the country.
And how will it all turn out? My crystal ball grows cloudy. But I do see blood in the streets.
What Mango Mussolini Thinks He’s Doing—A Clever Way to Transfer Wealth from the Poor to the Rich
The WSJ doesn’t say it, so I will. As far as I can tell, Orange Jesus knows full well that tariffs are going to increase inflation, cost jobs, and hurt his supporters. But he thinks they are a complicated, and therefore clever, way to generate a shit load of revenue and thus finance tax cuts for the billionaires.
As for the foreigners, Trump hates them all, but he particularly hates American allies. As the WSJ points out, Mexico and Canada will be hurt even more than his American supporters will be hurt. For Mango Mussolini, that’s a feature, not a bug.
Some Thoughts from the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
Now back to the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, which writes,
“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday morning. He also included a blast at these columns for leading the “Tariff Lobby” after our Saturday editorial called his 25% across-the-board tariffs on our friends and neighbors “the dumbest trade war in history.”
We appreciate Mr. Trump’s attention, though we’re anti-tariff and not lobbyists. But bad policy has damaging consequences, whether or not Mr. Trump chooses to admit it. Mr. Trump can’t repeal the laws of economics any more than Joe Biden could on inflation.
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Tariffs are taxes, and when you tax something you get less of it. Who pays the tariff depends on the elasticity of supply and demand for the specific goods. But Mr. Trump wants American workers and employers to take one for the team. Hope you don’t lose your job or business before the golden age arrives.
The economic fallout began Saturday evening as Canada said it will retaliate with a 25% tariff on $30 billion (Canadian dollars) of U.S. goods, with another C$125 billion to follow in three weeks. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also promised to retaliate.
Canada’s new border taxes will hit orange juice, whiskey and peanut butter—all from states with GOP Senators. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa’s tariff list would also include beer, wine, vegetables, perfume, clothing, shoes, household appliances, furniture and much more. He said Canada could also withhold critical minerals.
Note that Canada’s Conservative opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, also called for retaliation. Mr. Poilievre is the favorite to be the next Prime Minister and he rightly said the trade war will damage both countries. But he said Canada had to stand up for its “sovereignty” and protect its economic interests.
Mr. Trump’s tariffs are already roiling North America’s energy markets, which are highly integrated. The President implicitly recognized the risk by hitting Canada’s energy exports to the U.S. with a lower 10% tariff. But that will still hurt Midwestern refiners that rely on Canadian oil. Canada and Mexico could send more of their oil elsewhere for refining, perhaps even China.
Canada’s expanded Trans Mountain pipeline runs from Alberta to the West Coast and has spare capacity. It could be used to increase tariff-free oil shipments to Asia that would hurt California refineries that now import oil from Trans Mountain. California could have to import more oil from the Middle East.
Mr. Trump says the tariffs will revive U.S. manufacturing. But Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, said in a statement that “a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico threatens to upend the very supply chains that have made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally.”
He added that, while his members understand the need to reduce fentanyl flows to the U.S., “the ripple effects will be severe, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers that lack the flexibility and capital to rapidly find alternative suppliers or absorb skyrocketing energy costs.”
Many more trade groups have criticized the tariffs, including even U.S. aluminum makers who benefited from tariffs in the first term. Canada accounts for more than half of U.S. aluminum imports (owing to its cheap hydropower) that secondary and downstream manufacturers use.
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None of this means the Trump tariffs will tip the U.S. economy into recession. U.S. growth may be strong enough to absorb the blow from tariffs, as it was after Mr. Trump’s more modest levies in the first term. But the same can’t be said about Mexico and Canada, where growth is weak and which depend on U.S. markets for much of their GDP.
The tariffs may also not cause a surge in the general U.S. price level. Overall inflation depends far more on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. But prices will increase for most tariffed goods, which will be painful enough.
The tariff broadside also adds new policy risk and uncertainty that could dampen business animal spirits. Markets have been pricing in an assumption that Mr. Trump would step back from his most florid tariff threats, or limit tariffs to China.
The hammer blow to Mexico and Canada shows that no country or industry is safe. Mr. Trump believes tariffs aren’t merely useful as a diplomatic tool but are economically virtuous by themselves. This will cause friends and foes to recalibrate their dependence on America’s market, with consequences that are hard to predict. How this helps the U.S. isn’t apparent, so, yes, “dumbest trade war” sounds right, if it isn’t an understatement.
Good evening. Today, the United States informed us they will be imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian exports to the United States and 10 per cent on Canadian energy, a decision that, should they elect to proceed with, should take effect on Tuesday, Feb. 4.
Tonight, first I want to speak directly to Americans. Our closest friends and neighbors. This is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians. But beyond that, it will have real consequences for you, the American people.
As I have consistently said, tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk, potentially shutting down American auto assembly plants and other manufacturing facilities.
They will raise costs for you, including food at the grocery stores and gas at the pump.
They will impede your access to an affordable supply of vital goods crucial for U.S. security, such as nickel, potash, uranium, steel and aluminum.
They will violate the free trade agreement that the president and I, along with our Mexican partner, negotiated and signed a few years ago. But it doesn’t have to be this way.
As President John F. Kennedy said many years ago, geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends, economics has made us partners and necessity has made us allies.
That rang true for many decades prior to President Kennedy’s time in office, and in the decades since, from the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours during the Iranian hostage crisis. Those 444 days, we worked around the clock from our embassyto get your innocent compatriots home.
During the summer of 2005, when Hurricane Katrina ravaged your great city of New Orleans, or mere weeks ago when we sent water bombers to tackle the wildfires in California. During the day, the world stood still, Sept. 11, 2001, when we provided refuge to stranded passengers and planes. We were always there, standing with you, grieving with you. The American people.
Together, we’ve built the most successful economic, military and security partnership the world has ever seen. A relationship that has been the envy of the world.
Yes, we’ve had our differences in the past, but we’ve always found a way to get past them. As I’ve said before, if President Trump wants to usher in a new golden age for the United States, the better path is to partner with Canada, not to punish us.
Canada has critical minerals, reliable and affordable energy, stable democratic institutions, shared values and the natural resources you need. Canada has the ingredients necessary to build a booming and secure partnership for the North American economy, and we stand at the ready to work together.
Let’s take a moment to talk about our shared border. Our border is already safe and secure, but there’s always, always more work to do. Less than one per cent of fentanyl, less than one per cent of illegal crossings into the United States come from Canada.
But hearing concerns from both Canadians and Americans, including the American president himself, we’re taking action. We launched a $1.3 billion border plan that is already showing results, because we, too, are devastated by the scourge that is fentanyl, a drug that has torn apart communities and caused so much pain and torment for countless families across Canada, just like in the United States.
A drug that we too want to see wiped from the face of this earth. A drug whose traffickers must be punished as neighbors, we must work collaboratively to fix this.
Unfortunately, the actions taken today by the White House split us apart instead of bringing us together.
Tonight, I am announcing Canada will be responding to the U.S. trade action with 25 per cent tariffs against a $155 billion worth of American goods. This will include immediate tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods as of Tuesday, followed by further tariffs on $125 billion worth of American products in 21 days time to allow Canadian companies and supply chains to seek to find alternatives.
ike the American tariffs, our response will also be far reaching and include everyday items such as American beer, wine and bourbon, fruits and fruit juices, including orange juice, along with vegetables, perfume, clothing and shoes.
It’ll include major consumer products like household appliances, furniture and sports equipment, and materials like lumber and plastics, along with much, much more.
And as part of our response, we are considering with the provinces and territories, several non-tariff measures, including some relating to critical minerals, energy procurement and other partnerships.
We will stand strong for Canada. We will stand strong to ensure our countries continue to be the best neighbors in the world.
With all that said, I also want to speak directly to Canadians in this moment.
I’m sure many of you are anxious, but I want you to know we are all in this together. The Canadian government, Canadian businesses, Canadian organized labor, Canadian civil society, Canada’s premiers, and tens of millions of Canadians from coast to coast to coast are aligned and united.
This is Team Canada at its best.
Geopolitically, Prime Minister, the 12th on the unique is 30 day is a rush only to see a linear storm.
And now is also the time to choose Canada.
It might mean doing all of these things or finding your own way to stand up for Canada. In this moment, we must pull together because we love this country. We pride ourselves on braving the cold during the long winter months. We don’t like to beat our chests, but we’re always out there waving the maple leaf loudly and proudly to celebrate an Olympic gold medal.
Canada is home to bountiful resources, breathtaking beauty, and a proud people who’ve come from every corner of the globe to forge a nation with a unique identity worth embracing and celebrating. We don’t pretend to be perfect, but Canada is the best country on earth.
There’s nowhere else that I, in our 41 million strong family, would rather be.
And we will get through this challenge just as we’ve done countless times before together.
Facing MAGA 