Author: Ron Davis

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How Democratic Party Dropouts Swung the Election to Trump

For some time now, we have been about a 50-50 nation, with relatively small movements among voters determining the outcome of presidential elections. (Determining the outcome, that is, in light of the vagaries of the Electoral College system.)

In 2016, when 62,985,106 voters cast their votes for Trump, he only earned 45.9% of those who voted, and decisively lost the popular vote to Clinton, though he got more votes in the Electoral College. 

Between 2016 and 2024, Trump’s raw vote total increased by a whopping 13 million votes. But due to higher overall voter turnout in 2024, the percentage of voters opting for the Orange Godking increased by only about 4 percentage points. (Of course, the percentage increase is even lower than that if you look, not to actual voters, but to all registered voters, or all eligible voters.)

Four years ago, in 2020, despite the country’s horrible experience with Covid, Trump’s raw popular vote increased from about 63 million in 2016 to about 74.2 million in 2020. But voter turnout had increased, Trump’s percentage only rose from 45.9% to 46.9%, and Biden easily trumped Trump with 81,282,916 popular votes, or 51.3% of those who voted, and an Electoral College victory of 306 to 232.

This year, Democratic voters declined from 81,282,916 to 74,406,331. That’s a difference of 8,876,585. Some of these folks switched back to Trump—he got around 2.7 million more votes in 2024 than in 2020. Some probably decided to vote for a third party candidate. And a whole bunch of them just stayed home. 

For the sake of the discussion, let’s do this mental exercise and this back-of-the-envelope calculation. Let’s assume that all of Trump’s extra 2024 voters were people who had voted for Biden in 2020, but decided to switch sides in 2024. Let’s deduct these 2.7 assumed side-switchers from the missing 2024 Democratic voters. And let’s assume, for the sake of the discussion, that the rest of the missing Democratic voters were people who decided to sit out the 2024 election. That’s about 6.2 million voters.

If all those Democratic couch sitters had showed up for Harris, then she would have won the election handily—even taking into account all the people who switched from Biden back to Trump. 

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A Wannabe Mussolini, a Master Con Artist, or Just an Old Guy Throwing Ketchup at the Wall?

I will be writing elsewhere about how vital it is to know—and to feel, deeply—the difference between an established fact and a good working hypothesis. And, likewise, the difference between a plausible speculation and a reasonable hypothesis. 

In this post, I want to present a plausible speculation that may, if validated by new incidents and new evidence, soon graduate to a good working hypothesis. Here it is. 

Many see the 2024 Trump as a wannabe Mussolini. That he surrounds himself with some rich and clever people who want to turn America into Hungary or Fascist Italy is an established fact. See, for example, this op-ed by Catherine Rampell. But whether Trump has it in him to transform himself into Mussolini or Orban remains to be seen. 

Many see the 2024 Trump as something else: a charismatic, three-dimensional-chess-playing con man, with a near supernatural gift for deceiving a plurality of Americans. Much like the Trump who bloviated about a Mexican border wall, but only rebuilt some of the old border wall and then extended it by about 40 or 50 miles. (The entire border is 1,933 miles long.) Or the Trump who railed against NAFTA, gave it a new name, and proclaimed a famous victory. 

Con man Trump, some say, ran for president in 2024 to stay out of jail. In office, they predict, he will continue to bloviate, bluster, and bully, but probably won’t do all that much trouble.

Each of these two predictions is plausible. Each is far from an established fact. 

But, based on some recent events, let me suggest that a third way to look at 2024 Trump is coming into view. I’ll mention three items of evidence. 

First, we have the Trump ukase ordering the Senate to give up its constitutional power to advise and consent to appointments. The Republican senators said no. Trump backed down.

Second, we have l’affaire Gaetz. Trump nominated an idiot to be attorney general—an idiot who vowed to tear the place up. It quickly became apparent that the nominee did not have enough Republican votes in the Senate. Trump backed down.

Third, we have the Trump lunatic tweet about tariffs on Mexico. We have the Mexican president’s tough response. And Trump appears to have backed down. 

One swallow does not a summer make. Or even three swallows. But let me suggest that the evidence is beginning—I said beginning—to add up, and that a picture is beginning to form. 

From earliest childhood, Trump was trained by a sociopath to be a sociopath. He suffers from malignant narcissism and related personality disorders. For a long time, he has had only a loose connection with reality. Now, he is old, he is tired, and he appears to be in the incipient stage of dementia. (The situation is summarized here.)

Think about it. How would an evil person—a wannabe Mussolini, for example—have thought about the Gaetz appointment? Maybe the idea might have surfaced in a brainstorming session. But an evil, yet rational, actor would have done at least some checking to see whether there might be enough Senate votes to confirm this jerk. An evil, yet rational, actor would have planned to go on the warpath if his first choice for AG were blocked. 

Why? Because making an impulsive choice and then backing down makes you look weak. And it makes you look stupid.

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The 2024 Election Results and the Glorious Trump Mandate

It’s three weeks after the election debacle of 2024, and Thanksgiving Day is here. They are still counting some of the votes, but as I write on Nov. 27, 2024, the latest count shows that Trump won 76,883,434 votes, Harris received 74,406,431, and the rest of the voters—somewhere around 1.6% of those who showed up to vote—were divided in roughly equal amounts among the Green Party candidate, the Libertarian Party candidate, RFK Jr., and Micky Mouse.

Trump’s 2024 Plurality Among Those Who Voted

The total popular vote, as of this writing, stands at 153,847,281. If you calculate to the nearest 1/100 of a percent, Trump received 49.97% of those who voted, as of today’s count. (If you round up to the nearest tenth of a percent, or to the nearest percent, you can say Trump won 50% of the vote—a figure that one often sees.)

A “majority” means 50% plus 1. Here, a “majority” of those who voted would be a number equal to or greater than 76,923,641. Trump did not get quite that many votes.

Trump’s Support as a Percent of All Registered Voters

About 186.5 million Americans are currently registered to vote. Trump received about 41.2% of the votes of all those who are currently registered to vote (including those who voted and those who did not vote in 2024.)

Trump’s Support as a Percent of All Americans Who are Eligible to Vote

Of those who would be entitled to register to vote, some have actually registered, and some have not. As just noted, total voters actually registered are about 186.5 million. Total eligible voters—the currently registered plus the currently unregistered—are estimated to be around 244 million. 

Trump received the votes of about 31.5% of all those Americans who are eligible to vote.

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Trump to Mexico, Mexico to Trump

Trump to Mexico: “Fuck You”

Trump’s post of November 5, 2024:

As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!

Mexico to Trump: “Fuck You Very Much”

President Scheinbaum responded,

Dear President-elect Donald Trump, 

I am writing to you regarding your statement on Monday, November 25, concerning migration, fentanyl trafficking, and tariffs. 

You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States. As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States’ CBP One program. For these reasons, migrant caravans no longer arrive at the border. 

Even so, it is clear that we must work together to create a new labor mobility model that is necessary for your country, as well as address the root causes that compel families to leave their homes out of necessity. If even a small percentage of what the United States allocates to war were instead dedicated to building peace and fostering development, it would address the underlying causes of human mobility. 

On another note, and for humanitarian reasons, Mexico has consistently expressed its willingness to help prevent the fentanyl epidemic in the United States from continuing. This is, after all, a public health and consumption problem within your society. So far this year, Mexican armed forces and prosecutors have seized tons of various types of drugs, 10,340 firearms, and have detained 15,640 individuals for violence related to drug trafficking. 

Furthermore, the Mexican Congress is in the process of approving a constitutional reform to classify the production, distribution, and commercialization of fentanyl and other synthetic drugs as a serious crime without bail. However, it is publicly known that the chemical precursors used to produce this and other synthetic drugs are illegally entering Canada, the United States, and Mexico from Asian countries. This underscores the urgent need for international collaboration. You must also be aware of the illegal trafficking of firearms into my country from the United States. 

For every tariff, there will be a response in kind, until we put at risk our shared enterprises. Yes, shared. For instance, among Mexico’s main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico. 

I am convinced that North America’s economic strength lies in maintaining our trade partnership. This allows us to remain competitive against other economic blocs. For this reason, I believe that dialogue is the best path to understanding, peace, and prosperity for our nations. I hope our teams can meet soon to continue building joint solutions.”

Trump to Mexico: Neeever Mind!

Trump claims a win on immigration after a call with Mexico’s president. But she suggests no change

Looks a whole lot like the old Slap-a-New-Coat-of-Paint-on-NAFTA-and-Call-it-a-Famous-Victory gambit.

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And Apart from That, How Did You Like the Play, Mrs. Lincoln?

In this video, Jason Stanley, professor of philosophy at Yale and author of Erasing History: How Fascists Rewrite the Past to Control the Future, makes it sound as if the authoritarians are bound to win.

Stanley’s pessimism contrasts with David Brooks, who contends that Trump isn’t organized enough to be a Mussolini. That, according to Brooks, is the good news. The bad news is that he’s an anarchist.

But I digress. I take Professor Stanley’s point about the fascist oligarchs. But our side has its own billionaires. Contrary to what your instinct might be, IMHO, our side needs to work with them—and to discourage any of them planning to leave the country.