What the Hell Do We Say to Esther?

In seven minutes, Paul Solomon of the PBS Newshour tries to summarize “Why so many Americans are dissatisfied with the seemingly solid economy.” For a seven-minute discussion, Solomon and his guests lay out the issues fairly well.

Please take a hard look. Maybe watch it a second time, because the situation is a little complicated.

And then answer this question:

What the Hell Do We Say to Esther?

Let me give you four alternatives. Which message is most truthful, and which message is most likely to help us take our country back? Which will it be—A, B, C, or D?

A. The Identity Message

“Listen up, lady—and take a look in the mirror. Racism and misogyny still run rampant in this country. And you have just missed a chance to vote for a highly competent person, Kamala Harris, who is, like you, an African-American woman. What a shame! Clearly, you are not a credit to your race.”

B. The Me-Or-Your-Lying-Eyes Message

“As the saying goes, who are you gonna believe: me or your lying eyes? 

“For God’s sake, woman, you’re an accountant. Don’t you read the Financial Times? Don’t you read the Wall Street Journal? Don’t you know that we have had a great recovery under the Biden-Harris administration? Don’t you know that inflation is coming down?

“Instead of reading legitimate news sources, you must have been duped into reading the wrong Facebook pages. Get a grip on.”

C. The Just-You-Wait Message

“You say you’re concerned about inflation. But your man Trump has three signature policies that are bound to increase inflation and make your life more miserable: massive tariffs and trade wars, mass deportations that will disrupt the economy, and tax cuts for the wealthy that will overstimulate the economy and drive up prices. 

“You thought the last four years were bad? Wait till you see how things are going by 2026!

“We’ll see you at the polls in the next election. Until then, we don’t really have anything to say to you.”

D. The Let-Us-Listen-and-Engage Message

“In the last election, a lot of people were blindsided by the failure of the demography-is-destiny theory of American politics. We were blindsided by the fact that so many people did not understand the threat that Trump poses. And we were blindsided by just how bad things are for a lot of working class people.

“Well, on reflection, we’re glad that you have decided to weigh your perceived economic interests over your ethnic and gender identity. In that regard, you set a fine example for some white people who grieve for the loss of some of their privilege—and for some toxic males who are feel threatened by feminism.

“Now, let’s sit down and have a really serious discussion about the everyday economic difficulties you face, and about how government can make things better. Let’s develop a real economic program to run on in 2026.”

How Democratic Party Dropouts Swung the Election to Trump

For some time now, we have been about a 50-50 nation, with relatively small movements among voters determining the outcome of presidential elections. (Determining the outcome, that is, in light of the vagaries of the Electoral College system.)

In 2016, when 62,985,106 voters cast their votes for Trump, he only earned 45.9% of those who voted, and decisively lost the popular vote to Clinton, though he got more votes in the Electoral College. 

Between 2016 and 2024, Trump’s raw vote total increased by a whopping 13 million votes. But due to higher overall voter turnout in 2024, the percentage of voters opting for the Orange Godking increased by only about 4 percentage points. (Of course, the percentage increase is even lower than that if you look, not to actual voters, but to all registered voters, or all eligible voters.)

Four years ago, in 2020, despite the country’s horrible experience with Covid, Trump’s raw popular vote increased from about 63 million in 2016 to about 74.2 million in 2020. But voter turnout had increased, Trump’s percentage only rose from 45.9% to 46.9%, and Biden easily trumped Trump with 81,282,916 popular votes, or 51.3% of those who voted, and an Electoral College victory of 306 to 232.

This year, Democratic voters declined from 81,282,916 to 74,406,331. That’s a difference of 8,876,585. Some of these folks switched back to Trump—he got around 2.7 million more votes in 2024 than in 2020. Some probably decided to vote for a third party candidate. And a whole bunch of them just stayed home. 

For the sake of the discussion, let’s do this mental exercise and this back-of-the-envelope calculation. Let’s assume that all of Trump’s extra 2024 voters were people who had voted for Biden in 2020, but decided to switch sides in 2024. Let’s deduct these 2.7 assumed side-switchers from the missing 2024 Democratic voters. And let’s assume, for the sake of the discussion, that the rest of the missing Democratic voters were people who decided to sit out the 2024 election. That’s about 6.2 million voters.

If all those Democratic couch sitters had showed up for Harris, then she would have won the election handily—even taking into account all the people who switched from Biden back to Trump. 

The 2024 Election Results and the Glorious Trump Mandate

It’s three weeks after the election debacle of 2024, and Thanksgiving Day is here. They are still counting some of the votes, but as I write on Nov. 27, 2024, the latest count shows that Trump won 76,883,434 votes, Harris received 74,406,431, and the rest of the voters—somewhere around 1.6% of those who showed up to vote—were divided in roughly equal amounts among the Green Party candidate, the Libertarian Party candidate, RFK Jr., and Micky Mouse.

Trump’s 2024 Plurality Among Those Who Voted

The total popular vote, as of this writing, stands at 153,847,281. If you calculate to the nearest 1/100 of a percent, Trump received 49.97% of those who voted, as of today’s count. (If you round up to the nearest tenth of a percent, or to the nearest percent, you can say Trump won 50% of the vote—a figure that one often sees.)

A “majority” means 50% plus 1. Here, a “majority” of those who voted would be a number equal to or greater than 76,923,641. Trump did not get quite that many votes.

Trump’s Support as a Percent of All Registered Voters

About 186.5 million Americans are currently registered to vote. Trump received about 41.2% of the votes of all those who are currently registered to vote (including those who voted and those who did not vote in 2024.)

Trump’s Support as a Percent of All Americans Who are Eligible to Vote

Of those who would be entitled to register to vote, some have actually registered, and some have not. As just noted, total voters actually registered are about 186.5 million. Total eligible voters—the currently registered plus the currently unregistered—are estimated to be around 244 million. 

Trump received the votes of about 31.5% of all those Americans who are eligible to vote.