Complaint in Simplified v. Trump et al. (filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida)
Forbes, Lawsuit Could End Trump Tariffs And Stock Market Rout
This follows up on my post yesterday. I have a few more points about this interesting development.
The Federalist Society Angle
Trump 1.0 saw the appointment of around 250 federal judges. Most were vetted and approved by the Federalist Society. One of the guiding lights of the Federalist Society was and is Leonard Leo, who is also one of the instigators of the litigation under discussion here—litigation premised on the claim that Trump acted lawlessly in imposing his Liberation Day tariffs, the centerpiece of his administration’s economic policy.
The Merits of the Case
Who’s right on the merits may bear some tangential relevance to who is likely actually to win the case.
The central issue is this: Trump relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in decreeing his Liberation Day tariffs. But that act don’t say nothing about no tariffs. Trump was obviously trying to do an end run around a number of other statutes and regulations that do address the imposition of tariffs. So, says the plaintiff, along with Messrs. Koch and Leo, Trump acted lawlessly–outside the scope of his lawful powers.
That central issue raises, in turn, a host of other legal issues, and I am not an expert on any of them. The Forbes article quotes some people who are actually qualified to speak, who say that the case appears to have merit. And that is my untutored view as well.
How Long Will It Take to Decide the Case?
Plaintiff has not as of yet, and may not, ask for either a temporary restraining order or a preliminary injunction. Plaintiff and her counsel may well think that asking for this preliminary relief could slow things down.
Moreover, the case appears to be almost purely about issues of law, not fact; there would seem to be little need for witness depositions or document review. It could go quickly, if the district court judge and the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals choose to move it along.
And why wouldn’t the lower courts move it along? Like everybody else, they’re watching as their stock market investments go glug, glug, glug, down the old shitter.
An “Exit Ramp” for Trump?
As the pressure on Trump grows, it’s possible—not likely, in my view, but remotely possible—that he might start looking for a way out of his decision to crash the world economic order. Should he want to take an exit ramp, a decision by the Supreme Court ordering him to drop his tariffs could do the trick.
The Incentive/Disincentive to “Onshore” Manufacturing
Finally, if there is any business, anywhere, that is seriously considering building manufacturing capacity in the United States, based on Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, the pendency of this litigation gives them yet another reason to hesitate. As many have observed, you’re only going to spend the money to build a U.S. plant if you think the tariffs are going to last a long time. The lawsuit is yet one more reason, among many others, to question whether that’s a good bet.
Facing MAGA 