I will be writing elsewhere about how vital it is to know—and to feel, deeply—the difference between an established fact and a good working hypothesis. And, likewise, the difference between a plausible speculation and a reasonable hypothesis.
In this post, I want to present a plausible speculation that may, if validated by new incidents and new evidence, soon graduate to a good working hypothesis. Here it is.
Many see the 2024 Trump as a wannabe Mussolini. That he surrounds himself with some rich and clever people who want to turn America into Hungary or Fascist Italy is an established fact. See, for example, this op-ed by Catherine Rampell. But whether Trump has it in him to transform himself into Mussolini or Orban remains to be seen.
Many see the 2024 Trump as something else: a charismatic, three-dimensional-chess-playing con man, with a near supernatural gift for deceiving a plurality of Americans. Much like the Trump who bloviated about a Mexican border wall, but only rebuilt some of the old border wall and then extended it by about 40 or 50 miles. (The entire border is 1,933 miles long.) Or the Trump who railed against NAFTA, gave it a new name, and proclaimed a famous victory.
Con man Trump, some say, ran for president in 2024 to stay out of jail. In office, they predict, he will continue to bloviate, bluster, and bully, but probably won’t do all that much trouble.
Each of these two predictions is plausible. Each is far from an established fact.
But, based on some recent events, let me suggest that a third way to look at 2024 Trump is coming into view. I’ll mention three items of evidence.
First, we have the Trump ukase ordering the Senate to give up its constitutional power to advise and consent to appointments. The Republican senators said no. Trump backed down.
Second, we have l’affaire Gaetz. Trump nominated an idiot to be attorney general—an idiot who vowed to tear the place up. It quickly became apparent that the nominee did not have enough Republican votes in the Senate. Trump backed down.
Third, we have the Trump lunatic tweet about tariffs on Mexico. We have the Mexican president’s tough response. And Trump appears to have backed down.
One swallow does not a summer make. Or even three swallows. But let me suggest that the evidence is beginning—I said beginning—to add up, and that a picture is beginning to form.
From earliest childhood, Trump was trained by a sociopath to be a sociopath. He suffers from malignant narcissism and related personality disorders. For a long time, he has had only a loose connection with reality. Now, he is old, he is tired, and he appears to be in the incipient stage of dementia. (The situation is summarized here.)
Think about it. How would an evil person—a wannabe Mussolini, for example—have thought about the Gaetz appointment? Maybe the idea might have surfaced in a brainstorming session. But an evil, yet rational, actor would have done at least some checking to see whether there might be enough Senate votes to confirm this jerk. An evil, yet rational, actor would have planned to go on the warpath if his first choice for AG were blocked.
Why? Because making an impulsive choice and then backing down makes you look weak. And it makes you look stupid.
Facing MAGA 