Moronic and Menacing

So … here’s a post, mainly about Trump’s lawsuit against the Des Moines Register et al., because they published a poll that turned out to be wrong, and his allegedly forthcoming lawsuit against CBS because he didn’t like the way they edited a Sixty Minutes interview.

In my view, Tim Miller makes some good points in the video, but let me cut to the chase, as the high flyers like to say.

“Commercial Speech” or “Political Speech”?

Commercial speech is now (and has been for some years) deemed to enjoy limited First Amendment protection, but is subject to regulation, in order to prevent fraud in the sale of goods and services. One such law is the Iowa Consumer Frauds Act—the only law that Trump’s lawyer claims was violated by the newspaper and the pollster. 

The legal regime that governs political speech is very different from that governing commercial speech. Political lies are generally protected from judicial scrutiny by freedom of speech and freedom of the press. A moment’s reflection will let you see the reasons for this principle: in essence, to protect the political process and to protect the courts from being politicized.

In the Iowa case, it’s unlikely in the extreme that the poll’s error was intentional, on the part of the pollster, or the newspaper, or the newspaper’s parent company. But let’s pretend we’re in law school, and let’s assume, for the sake of the discussion, that the pollster and the newspaper did lie intentionally.

Trump’s lawsuit should be summarily dismissed. First, the words of the Iowa Consumer Frauds Act don’t apply to the alleged intentional political lie. Second, it’s highly unlikely that the Iowa Legislature intended its Consumer Frauds Act to apply to political speech. Third, even if the Legislature did have such an intent, its intent to regulate political speech would violate multiple legal precedents on freedom of the press and freedom of speech. 

And, By the Way, People Who Live in Glass Houses Shouldn’t Throw Stones

If Trump wins his Iowa lawsuit—which he will not—then he will have created a precedent under which he can be prosecuted for multiple violations each day, if not each hour. 

Defamation, the N.Y. Times v. Sullivan Rule, and the Finer Points of Rape

“Creative” as he was—in the pejorative sense of the word—the legal genius who crafted Trump’s Iowa lawsuit did not claim defamation, because predicting that you’re going to lose an election does not reflect badly on your character.

By contrast, in the recently settled Trump case against ABC News, Trump worked himself into a high dudgeon because the jury only found he had forcefully inserted his middle finger into the victim’s vagina—not his actual dick—where has New York law on “rape” would have required penetration by the presidential pecker. Sexual assault? Yes. “Rape”? No. How dare you accuse My Excellency of rape when I only victimized her vagina with my finger!

Many have criticized ABC and its parent, Disney, for “caving” to Trump. Personally, I think it was a tough call—and I think it’s generally a good idea to apply some nuanced analysis to a generally difficult situation, not just to hurl bumper sticker insults. If you’re interested, I recommend this article from the New York Times: Inside Disney’s Decision to Settle a Trump Defamation Suit: Talks started and finished on the same day, after Disney decided that fighting the lawsuit could potentially hurt the company and protections for the press.

“People Aren’t Anti-Immigrant, They’re Anti-Chaos”

Hard Truths About How the Immigration Mess Happened, Hard Truths About the Current Political Environment

Frank Sharry elaborates on the Dec. 16, 2024, piece in the Atlantic that he wrote with Cecelia Munoz, How Democrats Lost Their Way on Immigration: The party once championed an approach popular with voters and politicians alike. Why give up on it?

Why indeed? Well, as Sharry explains, there were lots of reasons: Republican bad faith, especially back in 2013, plus lots of misjudgments and political malpractice on the liberal side.

But it’s got to get fixed. 

Frank Sharry is an immigration activist and advocate. If you’re interested, check out his Wikipedia article. As a point of personal privilege, I was happy to learn that he’s a Princeton man. As we used to say back in the day: “Princeton in the Nation’s Service.”

Preaching From Matthew 25 While Jesús Cleans the Church—For Very Little Money

Here are the key points. 

First, there was a big, big bump in immigration under Biden.

Second, that big, big bump noticeable downward pressure on wages for all types of unskilled workers in the United States. See my previous post

Third, Trump thinks the resulting anger among Latino and other voters was what put him over the top in the 2024 election—and, for once, Trump is almost surely right. 

Fourth, lots of people like me were reluctant to crack down on undocumented immigrants. After all, didn’t Rabbi Jesus teach us to welcome the stranger? And didn’t Exodus and Leviticus in the Hebrew Scriptures teach us the very same thing?

Conclusion?

It’s a win-win situation! 

Opening the floodgates to undocumented immigrants is the right and moral thing to do!

And we economically comfortable folks get to benefit from cheap labor.

Like I said, a win-win.

And if unskilled working class people here in the United States see their wages depressed, well then, they had just better reread what Jesus said in Matthew 25, learn to share, and not be so picky about what wages they receive. If they have to choose between paying the rent and buying groceries, that’s just the burden they have to bear in order to do the right thing and welcome the stranger.

Oh Wait! That Sounds Like Hypocrisy!

It sounds like prosperous progressives are using purported morality as a cover for economic oppression of the working class.

Maybe we should all cover ourselves in sackcloth and ashes, rend our garments, and spend the next six months in profound contemplation of our own wickedness.

No! No! No! No! No!

Listen up, folks. Here’s the takeaway message. 

We are in a political crisis. Trump and his enablers have leveraged concern over immigration to get the electorate to vote for a proto-fascist regime. 

If your house is on fire, you put out the damn fire before you start to think deeply about what caused the fire.

Contemplating our own alleged hypocrisy at length is a luxury we can no longer afford.

Establishing a fine moral balance between the worth of a poor person in Guatemala versus a not quite so poor person here in the United States is, likewise, something that we cannot afford to do.

What we MUST do—well in advance of the 2026 election—is to work with the Latino community to develop a politically acceptable solution.

More posts on this issue to follow soon.

Posted by Ron Davis, Dec. 16, 2024

Declaring Martial law: Action, Meet Consequences

Washington Post, South Korean Yoon Suk Yeol impeached after martial law ploy

Washington Post, With K-pop and light sticks, South Koreans demanded Yoon’s impeachment: K-pop fans, many of them young women, were especially visible at the party-like protests that preceded the South Korean president’s impeachment.

Posted by Ron Davis, Dec. 14, 2024

Why Political Realignment is Essential

Tyler Austin Harper, Is This How Democrats Win Back the Working Class? Embracing populism could help the party build a lasting political coalition—if the Republicans don’t do it first.

N.Y. Times, The Upshot: How Some Voters Moved from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump: For some young men in particular, the populist pitches from Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump aligned with their attitudes about the ruling class.

By “political realignment” I’m referring specifically to the need for economically comfortable,  college educated people to wake up and smell the coffee, to inform ourselves about the realities of working class life in America, and align with persuadable working class voters to oppose the continued dominance of the super rich. 

If you can, you really need to read and digest both of the articles I cite. The Times piece provides a lot of helpful information on the attitudes of young working class men. The other article, from The Atlantic online, works off an interesting but problematic premise: that Republicans and Democrats are in competition to form a “lasting political coalition” with working class voters. Read it and see what you think. 

As for me, here’s what I think. I think the incoming Trump administration is going to be dominated by billionaires with a tax cutting, regulation slashing agenda. 

I think that if this tax cutting, regulation slashing agenda were to produce big economic gains for working class people, then lots of those working class people would decide that fascism works for them—and our country would well and truly be in deep doodoo.

I also think that if my grandmother had wheels, she could ride on the railroad tracks. 

Plus, if my aunt had balls, then she would be my uncle. 

Posted by Ron Davis, Dec. 13, 2024

Facing MAGA on Immigration

Rogé KarmaWhy Democrats Got the Politics of Immigration So Wrong for So Long: They spent more than a decade tracking left on the issue to win Latino votes. It may have cost them the White House—twice

I want to make two distinct points about facing MAGA on immigration. I believe that each of my two points is terribly important. (You might not share that opinion, and if you don’t share it, then bless your heart. It’s a free country—at least for the moment.)

Point One: Really Bad Situational Awareness and Strategy

That aptly named Mr. Karma, who is a staff writer for The Atlantic, offers up a lengthy, thorough, and brutal exposition of the Democratic political malpractice that led to the loss of Latino support in 2024 and to the catastrophic Trump victory. 

Although I am no expert on the topic, I find Karma’s analysis persuasive. If you are interested in Democratic victories going forward, then I urge you to read it. 

Point Two: A Vital Missing Piece of the Analysis—What’s the Right Thing to do About Immigration?

The immigration question is really two issues: 1) What legal standards ought to govern who can, and who cannot, immigrate to the United States, and how are these legal standards best enforced? 2) What should be done about the 11 million plus undocumented people who already live here? Should all of them be deported? Some of them? If only some of them, how to decide who gets to stay and who has to leave?

These are hard questions. Very hard questions. In large measure, because many considerations need to be taken into account in answering them. And because those considerations point in all sorts of different directions.

One of these considerations, among many others, is what is politically feasible. What proposed answers can someone of good will, acting in good faith, present to the American people and obtain their consent?

Because no matter how fair and wise your preferred approach might be, trying to push that approach without public buy-in will only make matters worse.

And conversely: shouldn’t you at least try to identify a sound, moral policy and then see whether you can sell that policy? Shouldn’t you try that approach first, before leaping into a discussion about which bumper sticker slogan is most likely to sell?

And, by the way, I don’t fault Mr. Karma for writing an article on political inside baseball rather than an article on what is good and sound public policy. He and his editors get to choose the topic on which they want to write.

I’m just saying: realize that any analysis of political inside baseball, no matter how fine the analysis, needs to be married to good, defensible public policy. 

Posted by Ron Davis, Dec. 10, 2024

While Resentment Can Put Bad People in Power, in the Long Run it Can’t Keep Them There

Words of Wisdom from Paul Krugman’s Final Column

So is there a way out of the grim place we’re in? What I believe is that while resentment can put bad people in power, in the long run it can’t keep them there. At some point the public will realize that most politicians railing against elites actually are elites in every sense that matters and start to hold them accountable for their failure to deliver on their promises. And at that point the public may be willing to listen to people who don’t try to argue from authority, don’t make false promises, but do try to tell the truth as best they can.

We may never recover the kind of faith in our leaders — belief that people in power generally tell the truth and know what they’re doing — that we used to have. Nor should we. But if we stand up to the kakistocracy — rule by the worst — that’s emerging as we speak, we may eventually find our way back to a better world.

Posted by Ron Davis, Dec. 10, 2024

Bullshit, Pretending to be 3-Dimensional Chess

MAGA Shock & Awe and the United States Senate

If you were a president-elect, and if your fondest ambition were to be like Orban or Putin, a high priority would be control of the power agencies: the Justice Department, the FBI, and the military. You would select three plausible appointees as Attorney General, FBI chief, and Secretary of Defense—people whose backgrounds would make it hard for a Republican senator to oppose. These choices would be evil, but highly intelligent. You would conspire with these three picks, getting them to commit to your authoritarian goals, but promising to conceal their goals until it’s too late to stop them. These people would not be Matt Gaetz or Kash Patel or Pete Hegseth. 

Now, I have long since concluded that trying to read the mind of the Orange God King is a fool’s errand. And, by the way, I am no fool, and neither are you. 

But, reflecting on Mango Jesus’s deeds (not his thoughts), I can say this. He has acted as if his fondest desire was to spit on our country’s main institutions of law and order, to order the 53 Republican senators to eat a meal of shit sandwiches, and to force them all to say—to make every mother’s son and daughter of them say—”Thank you, SIR. May we please have some more, SIR?”

And how did Lizard Brain try to bring this about? Well, you will remember that he first demanded—DEMANDED—that the Republican senators agree not to exercise their constitutional duty and right to advise and consent to presidential appointments.

Whoops! That didn’t work.

Then he tried to force Matt Gaetz down their throats as the new Attorney General. 

Whoops! That didn’t work, either, so he picked someone else. (A few posts from now, we’ll get to Pam Bondi. I promise you.)

Then he served up an inexperienced, dishonest, drunken lout, Pete Hegseth, as his choice for Defense Secretary.

Then, when that selection ran into Republican opposition, he talked about replacing Hegseth with a more palatable choice. 

Then someone realized that, with repeated Shock & Awe stunts going pear shaped, Trump was in imminent danger of getting a reputation as an incompetent old fool.

Then the folks around Trump began leaking that, while Hegseth’s nomination might be in deep doodoo, it was all a very clever ploy to use the nominee as a “heatshield,” to take attention away from the ghastliness of other nominees like Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel and RFK Jr. (See, e.g., Mark Caputo, Hegseth Brings His Nomination Back from the Brink.)

Friends and neighbors, if you think Trump and his henchpersons are playing three-dimensional chess, then please let me know, because I have a fine, fine bridge in Brooklyn that I can let you have at a cheap price. 

And What Will the 53 Republican Senators Do About the Shock & Awe Bullshit Nominees?

Three points. First: I don’t know what they’re going to do, and I won’t try to predict what they are going to do. Second: One can always hope, but I have zero expectation that their decisions will be based on patriotism, principle, and reason. Third point: All that said, the most reliable means of predicting human behavior is careful analysis of motivation and incentive. Accordingly, I strongly recommend

Jonathan Martin, Here Are the GOP Senators Best Positioned to Take on Trump: These are the Republican lawmakers who, by dint of age, independence or unusual constituencies, could provide a crucial check on Trump’s dictatorial ambitions

Martin names ten of them: McConnell, Collins, Cassidy, Tillis, Ernst, Murkowski, Grrassley, Young, Moran, and the yet-to-be-named (by Governor Mike DeWine) person from Ohio to replace J.D. Vance, and he takes a careful look at each of them—their individual situations, their likely motivations, and their incentives. See also

Aaron Blake, The fascinating—and important—Florida and Ohio Senate appointments: A look at the dynamics for both appointments, which could make the Senate mor or less Trump-y

In Sum

There will be 53 Republican senators in the next Congress. To Trump’s absurd nominees, one may expect at least 43 of them to say, “SIR, thank you for the shit sandwich, SIR. SIR, may I please have another one, SIR.”

But, for Trump, 43 will not be enough. He needs 50 (so that Vice President Vance can break the tie).

How many will he get?

Que sera sera.

Posted by Ron Davis, Dec. 7, 2024