When I was three years old, I had to learn by experience what are the consequences of sticking the table knife into the electric socket. Apparently, large numbers of our fellow citizens need to learn from experience that it is unwise to pick as your airline pilot someone suffering from severe mental illness, who lacks common sense, and who is quickly becoming senile and demented. Such a pilot is likely to fly the plane into the ground. It’s a shame the passenegers didn’t know that before the picked him.
The Markers of Authoritarianism
I think the New York Times did a good job laying out twelve markers of authoritarianism. (See the immediately preceding post.) That said, I also think some context is badly needed.
What Trump Doesn’t Know
Trump doesn’t know how to do second-order thinking. He cannot accurately grasp the consequences of his actions, or the consequences of the actions of others.
Trump doesn’t know how to think long term. Witness, for example, his thoughts on the filibuster.
Trump doesn’t know how to use any tools to achieve his goals, apart from bribery and threats, including threats of violence.
It is a constant surprise to Trump that, while some people will succumb to bribery and some will succumb to threats, others will not. In fact, for many, the threats will, from Trump’s perspective, be entirely counterproductive.
As a sociopath lacking all empathy, Trump is unable to appeal to others’ empathy, because he does not know that most people are empathetic, at least to some degree.
Trump doesn’t know how to construct a plausible argument. Thus, on the rare occasions when his positions have some merit, he cannot make a logical argument.
In fact, Trump is unaware that some arguments are backed by facts and logic, and some are just bullshit. To him, legal disputes are just a matter of which side screams the loudest. Because he is unaware that some legal positions are well founded and others are not, and because he cannot accurately predict the consequences of his actions, and because he is incapable of second order thinking, he has ordered the prosecution of Letitia James and James Comey even though the prosecutions will fail, and he and his legal team will be revealed as the idiots they are.
By contrast, a rational proto-fascist would have known that ordinary prosecutions of his enemies would fail, and he would do better to encourage violent action against them, outside the formal legal structure.
But Trump is the President
So, he can do a lot of mischief and cause a lot of chaos.
Trump’s Popularity is Headed South
From The Economist this morning:
Inflation and Criminal Immigrants
Trump’s slender margin of victory in 2024 was based on inflation and fears of criminal immigrants.
A rational proto-fascist would have kept his promise to try to lower inflation. A rational wannabe dictator would have realized that policies that tend to promote inflation will in fact increase inflation. Someone capable of second order thinking would have realized that higher inflation would decrease his popularity and make it harder for him to achieve his authoritarian dreams. Someone not blinded by grandiosity would recognize his loss of popularity when he sees it.
A rational nascent Nazi would recognize that if he has made inroads into the Latino community by promising to round up criminal immigrants, then he should round up criminal immigrants, not terrorize the whole Latino population.
And What About the Supreme Court?
The Supreme Court is slow walking Trump’s emergency application to invade Illinois. On Wednesday of this week, they’ll hear oral argument on Trump’s tariff power grab. Other issues will follow in due course.
They game of Trump v. Justice is under way, but there are more innings to play. In the last game of the World Series, the Blue Jays were ahead at the end of eighth inning, but the Dodgers won the contest. Let’s let this game play out.
Yeah, But What if Trump Just Defies the Courts?
Well, as someone once said, aye, there’s the rub.
Let’s say Trump doesn’t want to obey a Supreme Court order and directs [insert name of police unit, National Guard, Army battalion, etc. etc.] to act in contravention of the Court’s decision, will the people making up that official body obey Trump or will they obey the Supreme Court or will law and order just break down?
I put it to you that it’s hardly a foregone conclusion that the … police, National Guard, Army, etc. … will just jerk their knees and do exactly what Trump tells them to do.
But Because I Can Do Second Order Thinking, I Post the Next Question
If the official organs of state power refuse to obey illegal orders, will Trump just call out the Proud Boys and the other hooligans?
Answer: I don’t know, but he has done it before.
Facing MAGA 