Anything is Possible
When preparing a witness to testify, one standard piece of advice is this: “If opposing counsel asks you a question in the form of ‘Is it possible that …’ your answer is that ‘Anything is possible.’”
Meaning that anything is metaphysically possible.
With that thought in mind, is it metaphysically possible that something will happen inside Iran than will produce a new set of rulers that will agree to terms Trump can accept? Yes, it is, because anything is metaphysically possible.
Or, is it metaphysically possible that, one fine day, whoever is in charge in Iran will start believing Trump’s delusional blustering bullshit threats and surrender to Trump?
You know the answer to that question.
Do Sensible People Plan Their Affairs Based on Assumed Future States That are Metaphysically Possible but Vanishingly Unlikely to be Real?
You know the answer to that question, too.
So, How Will the Iran War Actually be Resolved?
Kagan thinks Trump will not send ground troops into Iran, and he is almost surely right.
Kagan thinks escorting ships through the strait isn’t going to work, and that appears to be right.
It’s likely that Trump will try some more air attacks. It’s overwhelmingly likely that additional air attacks won’t budge Iran’s negotiating position.
That leaves these possibilities: One, Trump lets the situation fester as the world sinks into economic depression. Two, Trump has to give up, let Iran keeps the nukes, and let Iran keep the Strait of Hormuz.
Why, Then, Do Sensible People Have So Much Trouble Grasping the Nature and Likely Duration of the Iran War Catastrophe?
Evidently because, as it turns out, cognitive normality bias is one hell of a tenacious sucker.
Finally, Here’s an Nice Little Thought Experiment
A miracle occurs tomorrow, and your preferred candidate becomes President next week. Say Pete Buttigieg. Or say whoever you like.
How does our new fantasy President resolve the Iran crisis?
Facing MAGA 