As I write early this Sunday morning, the talking heads are talking and the poohbahs are pontificating about the Middle East. Last night, I caught Elliot Abrams on the TeeVee. Wikipedia calls him “one of the Bush administration’s intellectual architects of the Iraq War.” So it’s good to know that Abrams thinks that Iran will soon capitulate.
What a relief!
Iran Does Not Share Elliot Abrams’ Perspective
Instead, as the Wall Street Journal solemnly informs us, Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War: Tehran sees an opportunity to control the Mideast’s energy as it bets on outlasting Trump’s will—a risky gamble.
Liar, Liar
Yesterday, the New York Times Editorial Board expatiated on Trump’s lies about the Iran War. I am sure that the members of the Editorial Board are prime examples of the great and the good, and I am equally confident that their knowledge of international affairs exceeds my own. But I do not think “liar” is the best term for Orange Mussolini.
A rational liar knows the truth but intends to deceive others. A rational liar knows that successful deception requires a certain finesse. You do not make claims that are easily shown to be false. That causes you to lose credibility, which in turn greatly impedes your plan of deception. Likewise, and for the same reason, you do not make claims that are internally inconsistent, nor do you make assertions and predictions that are highly implausible.
Trump is not lying to us.
Trump is, instead, trying to deceive himself.
Operation Blind Fury
Finally, count The Economist as much closer to the mullahs’ prognostication than to that of Elliot Abrams. The magazine writes War in Iran is making Donald Trump weaker—and angrier: By diminishing the president’s political superpowers, his reckless campaign may make him more dangerous.
Which Comes First—the Assassination or the Nuclear Bombs?
Trump has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons against his foes. (Don’t think so? Ask your favorite AI source about his nuclear musings, and then read the sources it serves up.)
These threats are no secret to the mullahs. For that reason and others, in this world of great uncertainty, we may be confident that Iranian-inspired assassination teams are gearing up.
The big question, in my view, is whether the assassins get Trump before he orders the Air Force to drop some nukes.
Facing MAGA 