Thomas B. Edsall (N.Y. Times), How Does a Stymied Autocrat Deal With Defeat?
Mr. Edsall writes,
The window of opportunity that allowed President Trump to overwhelm his adversaries with an onslaught of executive orders dismantling core American institutions is closing.
Public opinion has turned against him, the economy is faltering, the Supreme Court has ordered him to stand down, his tariffs have backfired, and such conservative mainstays as National Reviewand The Wall Street Journal are questioning his judgment.
How does a stymied autocrat deal with defeat? As the opposition gains strength, frustrating the nation’s commander in chief, how will Trump respond?
It is unthinkable to imagine him graciously acknowledging defeat, changing direction and moving on.
Will he claim victory in defeat? Will he try to provoke his adversaries into violence in order to invoke the Insurrection Act?
Trump’s unpredictability makes it impossible to answer these questions with any certainty, but as his actions in the first three months of his second term demonstrate, Trump’s choices veer to the extreme. …
If, in the face of adversity, Trump and his allies attempt to overturn democracy, what are their chances? I asked Herbert Kitschelt, a professor of international relations at Duke and the 2025 recipient of the prestigious Johan Skytte Prize in political science, that question, and he provided a nuanced reply by email: “No scientific, evidence-based investigation can currently provide a factually grounded prognosis” on “whether and how Trump and the Christian evangelical-nationalist-Southern wing of the Republican Party might break the democratic Constitution of the United States,” he wrote.
Instead, Kitschelt argued, it is possible to “outline the forces that may impinge on whether this process will take place or not.”
Kitschelt then specified the four factors working in favor of the establishment of “an authoritarian coalition in the United States”:
U.S. technological innovativeness and productivity gains — more so than in other advanced capitalist countries — have generated anxiety among many occupational groups.
The U.S. has a weak welfare state — in terms of pensions, health care, unemployment insurance, aid to families with children, public education — when compared to just about any other advanced capitalist country.
America is the most inegalitarian advanced Western country, in terms of income and wealth. That induces rich people to promote politicians who distract the economically worse off from questions of economic distribution and focus their attention on issues of political governance, culture war, racial and ethnic hierarchies and nationalist claims to global supremacy.
Unlike any other Western democracy, America has a deeply antidemocratic, intolerant, illiberal religious strand.
Kitschelt went on to describe conditions in the United States that “are adverse to the victory of an authoritarian coalition” and are, in contrast, favorable to democracy:
America’s civil society: If it awakens from its current shock and slumber, signs of which are already emerging, it is likely that it will become a powerful force to uphold democracy.
Most importantly: American capitalism, large segments of the U.S. business class, whether in finance, I.T. and A.I., U.S. manufacturers in global production chains (vehicles, aerospace, pharma, etc.) and U.S. culture industries are averse to a MAGA & Tea Party authoritarian coalition. Populism undercuts property rights and the rule of law, rendering it impossible to make rational, profit-generating, long-term business investments.
A severe economic crisis, which Kitschelt believes is probable, given current trends, would sharply undermine Republican prospects in the 2026 congressional elections, which might prompt Trump and his allies to “realize that they cannot win a free and fair election and actually might face a defeat in the midterms severe enough to precipitate the impeachment of both president and vice president.”
The question then becomes, in Kitschelt’s view:
Will evangelical-nationalist clero-fascism — with other MAGA and Tea Party currents in tow — be capable of converting America into an electoral autocracy faster than U.S. civil society and large parts of the business sector will be able to mobilize a defense of American democracy and to stiffen the spine of the U.S. judiciary to preserve American institutions?
Facing MAGA 