I highly recommend this video from last night’s PBS Newshour for a lucid, hardheaded explanation of the current status of the Iran War.
Here are a few additional thoughts.
Iran’s Rulers are Behaving Like Rational Bad People
Yes, Iran is hurting economically and militarily. Yes, Trump is so desperate for an “off ramp” that he would willingly give the Iranian rulers a very sweet deal if only they would give him some means of saving face.
But here’s the deal—from the rational bad person’s point of view: if they buy off Trump, there’s a strong likelihood that he won’t stay bought. Trump is a psychotic, delusional man-child who thinks the U.S. Navy, Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps are his toy soldiers. He is entirely capable of making a deal with you this week and trying to kill you next week.
From the rational bad people’s standpoint, the only possible way to be sure of getting peace is put Trump in a place where he is thoroughly humiliated—a place where he is forced to admit defeat.
Mango Mussolini’s Three Choices
1. He could send in the ground troops. (Or maybe try dropping a few nuclear bombs.)
2. He could let the stalemate continue more or less indefinitely.
3. He coule accept Iran’s terms and surrender.
That’s all there is and there ain’t no more.
Which Will He Choose?
Pretty much no one thinks he’s going to go for the ground troop option. Nor is the nuclear option attractive.
A lot of people reckon that the stalemate scenario is the most most likely, and of course they might be right. But I don’t agree.
Why? Broadly speaking, two reasons.
First, continued stalemate is going to make his political problems even worse. It’s going to risk nationwide and worldwide recession. And it’s going to invoke one of his very biggest fears—being remembered as a second Herbert Hoover.
Secondly, one of Mango Mussolini’s core beliefs is that he is the world’s greatest con men—that he can serve up a shit sandwich and make you believe that it is Panera’s latest premium masterpiece.
Put those two thoughts together, and I think he will conclude that surrender on Iran’s terms is the least bad of three very terrible options.
Facing MAGA 