John Mearscheimer
Prof. Mearscheimer has been teaching international relations at the University of Chicago since 1982. He is well respected, but some of his analyses are highly controversial.
Here, Prof. Mearscheimer provides a remarkably comprehensive, granular, and detailed analysis of the United States’ current predicament in Iran. The subject lends itself to thinking in bumper sticker slogans; if that is your preferred way of thinking, then you will have no interest in this video. On the other hand, if fact-based thinking is your preference, then this video is for you.
Why Hasn’t Trump Surrendered to Iran?
I have argued that surrender is the least bad of Trump’s various bad options. I remain of that view. 100 percent. Maybe 200 percent. Watch the 57 minutes of this video and you will see why—in enormous detail.
So, why hasn’t he surrendered? And what will happen if he persists in this attitude?
First of all, let me acknowledge that far greater men than Donald John Trump have failed to understand that they were screwed, blued, and tattooed, and that their best option was to take their losses and amscray.
Second, with the June, 2026, memorandum of understanding he tried, sort of, to semi-surrender. In my view, it didn’t work (1) because elements within Iran did not want peace, even on terms that were favorable to Iran and (2) because Trump wasn’t willing to accept the full consequences of his very bad hand.
As Mearscheimer points out, Trump has specifically articulated a fear that the Iran war will cause a depression—and that he will be remembered as another Herbert Hoover.
With that thought in mind, with so few cards to play, and with his extraordinarily warped view of reality, I think there is a good chance he is going to nuke Iran.
That, I think, is what he means when he keeps blathering about “annihilation.”
Trump is the world’s worst gambler—a vital skill about which he has no clue.
